China-Asean FTA came to effect

The long-waited free trade agreement between China and the 10 Asean countries came into effect on January 1, 2010.

It's the third largest FTA in the world, after EU and NAFTA.

Happy New Year 2010

To everyone!

Pax Chinamericana

The 00's decade is gone and the 10's decade here. I predict the new decade will be one of peace guided under Chinese and American understanding.

There will still be terrorism, trade wars, and political conflicts. But we will be living in Pax Chinamericana.

Chinamerica in 2010

The last decade saw the tight economic embrace of the US and China. Niall Ferguson of Harvard University and Moritz Schularick of Free University in Berlin coined a word for this state of affair: Chimerica. Along this line, maybe the word Chinamerica is just as well.

They theorize as follows. China produces, America consumes; China saves, America borrows. And China keeps it going by pegging its currency yuan to the American dollar.

They are only half right.

It's not China that produces; it's foreign companies in China that do. They count 60% of Chinese exports. This means foreign multinationals own hundreds of billions of US dollars, pehaps trillions, of productive assests in China.

On the other hand, China only has paper assests in US treasuries. Every time Chinese companies try to get some real assets, American politicians are in uproar.

Therefore, the so-called financial imbalance is not a one-sided affair and it's to China's deteriment as well as to America's. To really remedy it, China should spend its 2 trillion dollars buying real productive assets in the US or buying out American multinationals in China. It would balance the Chinamerican relationship either way.

A Common Moral Vision in the Age of Climate Change

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, was a disaster. It was destined to fail. The surprise was that people were shocked when it failed so utterly.

Two years' preparation, two weeks' intense talks, and last hours' hard bargaining led to a 3-page face-saving and empty Copenhagen Accord, signed by five countries - the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa, later reluctantly endorsed by the EU and most of other 193 countries attending the convention.

Naturally the blame began right after. Some blame the US for the failure, while others blame China. Still others blame both the US and China. German environment minister Norbert Röttgen summarized as the US can't lead because its domestic politics and China won't lead because it rejects external monitoring.

And the EU can't lead either because of its liking for complex and bureaucratic solution. This led to the convention host Denmark run amok, by first secretly putting together a "Danish text", then denying there was one and finally trying to impose it during the meetings of select 20 plus countries, on behave of the developed countries. It obivously didn't work and shouldn't.

Merry Christmas!

To those who celebrate the big day.

The Copenhagen blame game

Now many people realized the UN Copenhagen conference on climate change was really a disaster, the blame game has begun. It was China, it was the US, or someone else, who wrecked the party.

Europeans were left out of the room when the deal was signed. They weren't happy about the deal and the way it was done. The European Commission has set up a group to study it! Right!

The Copenhagen Accord that isn't

The 3 page document was signed by the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa, after 2 weeks talks by 193 countries. It came down the US President Barack Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to rescue a non-deal deal in the last hours.

An accord it isn't. Non-binding, no targets, no deadlines.

The UN takes note of it. That's all: a failure. There must be a better way to deal with the climate change issue.

Obama came and went: what happened?

US President Barack Obama came to China last week, had a couple of high-level meetings with Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, and visited the Forbidden City and the Great Wall.

Except not much had been accompanished, which left many people scratching their heads.

Really President Obama has too preoccupied at home. Now he has stablized the US economy, is pushing for healthcare reform, and will have to make a decision on deploying more troops in Afghanistan soon.

Too much on his plate, Obama chose to spend his capital at home rather than abroad.

Obama met Chinese students

They finally met, that is, American President Barack Obama and Chinese students in a Shanghai townhall meeting.

He talked and they listened. They asked questions and he answered.

All in all it's an uneventful event. He did speak about censorship and human rights. It seemed to be a minimalist approach.

The US and China in G2 talks

The US President Barack Obama is in Shanghai now, starting his 4-days visit to China.

There is a lot to talk between him and Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao.

But how much will come out from these talks is a big question mark because of the deep mistrust between the US and China.

APEC another talkshop

The leaders of 21 Asia-Pacific countries, including American President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao, will meet in Singapore this weekend. It's really unproductive talkfest. In the last 20 years of such meetings, nothing concrete has been accomplished.

Mercifully, the traditional photo op of these leaders wearing a silly local outfit, is cancelled.